Citizens' Daily Lobby

The Guardian is reporting today that the International Energy Agency  (IEA) has been deliberately overestimating oil supply to prevent panic buying.  An anonymous whistleblower claims thast the agency skewed its figures, underestimating the decline in existing fields and overestimated the chances of discovering new fields,  because of pressure from the US.  The Guardian cites another former IEA official who has since left the organization:

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was “imperative not to anger the Americans” but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. “We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,” he added.

Estimates vary from “peak oil has already happened” to the IEA’s predicted peak of 105 million barrels a day by 2030.  The reality undoubtedly lies somewhere in between, but I’m putting my money on sooner rather than later.   It’s hard to imagine a world with declining supplies of petroleum.   Add decreasing energy supplies to a worldwide shortage of clean drinking water, and the scene is set for global conflict.  We here in the US can be fairly certain that our government will not participate in a fair distribution of resources, and playing down the reality of peak oil may have more to do with maintaining US superiority than preventing panic in the stock market.   It’s also fairly certain that US citizens will not readily abandon a wasteful lifestyle that squanders resources.

This news comes at a time when the US is pondering climate change regulation, and the world is meeting in Geneva to discuss climate change.   The reality of the looming oil peak should drive policy, not the fantasy of consumption the US government and Corporate America wants us to accept.